Another study conducted by The World Bank Group comparing predictive models for startup outcomes found that even structured forecast approaches struggle to predict success, underscoring that intuitive or judged signals, like competition wins, are not reliable predictors of future performance.
Reporting by Chance Townsend, Caitlin Welsh, Sam Haysom, Amanda Yeo, Shannon Connellan, Cecily Mauran, Mike Pearl, and Adam Rosenberg contributed to this article.
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