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十多年前,编剧董哲曾在起点中文网上连载过一部五代十国相关的网络历史小说。他是“唐粉”,原本计划探索一番群雄逐鹿的隋唐时期,后来发现,唐王朝崩溃后的五代十国,是一段更为混乱,也极度考验文明韧性的历史时期:藩镇割据导致地方节度使拥兵自重,兵子以人为“军粮”,文明秩序碎成一地。
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We then conducted pairwise comparisons using permutation tests (5,000 repetitions per test). While the rate of discovery for the Rule Confirming condition was lower (8.4%) than the rate for the Rule Disconfirming condition (14.1%), this difference was not statistically significant (diff = 5.7 percentage points, 95% CI [−-14.5 p.p., 2.9 p.p.], p=.143p=.143; H1b). The Rule Confirming condition discovered the rule more frequently than but not significantly different from the Default GPT condition (5.9%; diff = 2.5 p.p., 95% CI [−-4.6 p.p., 9.6 p.p.], p=.686p=.686, H1c).555An exploratory equivalence test (using 90% bootstrap confidence intervals for consistency) confirmed that these conditions were statistically equivalent. We defined the equivalence bounds as ±0.5SDDefault\pm 0.5SD_{Default} (±11.9\pm 11.9 p.p.), representing a medium effect size. The 90% confidence interval for the difference fell entirely within these bounds (90% CI [−-3.4 p.p., 8.2 p.p.]). Finally, consistent with our predictions, Default GPT showed significantly lower discovery rates than Rule Disconfirming (5.9% vs. 14.1% diff = 8.2 p.p., 95% CI [−-16.6 p.p., 0.1 p.p.], p=.043p=.043; H1d).666Note that the 95% CI overlaps zero as it corresponds to a two-sided test, whereas the significant pp-value reflects our pre-registered one-sided hypothesis.. One notable finding from our exploratory analyses is that Default GPT differed significantly from Random Sequence on both discovery (5.9% vs 29.5%; diff = 23.6 p.p., 95% CI [−34.0-34.0 p.p., −13.2-13.2 p.p.], p,推荐阅读旺商聊官方下载获取更多信息
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